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How do you pick yourself up after failing a run
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So today was a long run day and the motto was to run 13 miles (about 20km) in 6:00 to 6:30km pace. At the start I can already tell my body wasn't at the best of place but I shrugged it off to just morning sluggishness. 7 miles in and that sluggishness is still present and I can tell the pain is slowly creeping but I kept on running.
10 miles in and I almost collapsed on the side of the road (good samaritans helped me up). I tried to shrug it off and continue but the pain on my legs and body was too unbearable after bearing the pain for 1 and a half hour now. I had to do a 3 mile walk of shame to my house.
I never failed a run in the 2 and a half years of my running journey and it had to happen to a run where it was supposed to be easy. I paced my self correctly not going too fast or too slow but somehow it still got the best of me.
Have you guys ever experienced this? If so, how did you get past this fail because right now I'm feeling kinda down and doubting my ability as a runner.
Top Comment: I tell myself that anytime I put on my running shoes and run it’s a good run; because I could have just not put on the shoes. I remember when learning to run a mile was tough and remind myself that I’m conditioning and continuing to learn as a runner.
node.js - Vitest tests pass in GitHub Actions but fail locally due to dotenv config - Stack Overflow
Main Post: node.js - Vitest tests pass in GitHub Actions but fail locally due to dotenv config - Stack Overflow
Apex Legends causing driver crash/failure | EA Forums - 12490380
Main Post: Apex Legends causing driver crash/failure | EA Forums - 12490380
"Falling in Style" - Which games allow for the most spectacular failruns - General - Choice of Games Forum
Main Post: "Falling in Style" - Which games allow for the most spectacular failruns - General - Choice of Games Forum
Top Comment: Title is self-explanatory. It’s always fun to be amazingly successful, but it’s also fun to see how spectacularly you can fail! What games allow you to do that? I was thinking Tin Star was one of them: try to see how many Chapters it takes for you to get the most Legendary ending, and then ...
Why does "run shell" fail with error 1?
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My task is simply moving all files from 1 folder to another, Tasker has file system permissions. I don't have root. This is the error log I get:
19.24.45/E Run Shell: -> 19.24.45/E Run Shell: -> 19.24.45/E Run Shell: -> 19.24.45/Shell runBackground mv /storage/emulated/0/DCIM/Screenshots/* /storage/emulated/0/Android/media/Screenshots/ root: false timeout: -1 19.24.45/Shell start process-thread ID 2840 19.24.45/E add wait type Shell1 time 2147483647 19.24.45/E add wait type Shell1 done 19.24.45/E add wait task 19.24.45/E Error: 1Any ideas how to solve this? I just want to create a simple task to move all files from 1 folder to another, thanks.
Top Comment:
I'm not sure why you're having this problem, but I'm having a similar problem, so you're not alone. An actin that has previously worked no longer does:
Task: Ifconfig Test A1: Run Shell [ Command: ifconfig Timeout (Seconds): 0 Store Output In: %output Store Errors In: %errors Use Global Namespace: On Continue Task After Error:On ] A2: Set Clipboard [ Text: %output ] A3: Set Clipboard [ Text: %errors ]In my case there is no output, but I get the following error:
ifconfig: No file /proc/net/dev: Permission deniedIf I change the shell command to:
Ifconfig --helpthe command completes successfully.
Commander Pro & iCue fail if you run HWINFO64
Main Post: Commander Pro & iCue fail if you run HWINFO64
Top Comment: It's the sensor-related part of the system and hwinfo takes over, so it's not Corsair's problem. This is natural. A solution is already written in the reply.
Cata Run Fail - Trail of Treachery EPIC End Battle
Main Post: Cata Run Fail - Trail of Treachery EPIC End Battle
Top Comment:
New to Cata but I’m loving it!
Fun Fact: Apparently you can fail a run if you have 1 maximum resolve and accept a Pact that gives you 50% reduced maximum resolve.
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Dying to rewards is fun!!
Top Comment:
Please take a sec and check if the same info isn't already posted a dozen time
Check out Visual Studio Flaky Tests Detection - Run Until Failure
Main Post: Check out Visual Studio Flaky Tests Detection - Run Until Failure
Top Comment: What purpose does this serve? This may be beneficial in integration / acceptance tests, but then you are testing the reliability of the network? Surely the only circumstance that a unit test would fail after 1000 iterations is if there is a memory leak or if (for example) your test is using a random number to perform a prime number or fractal calculation and the number is too large What circumstances prompted you to require a flaky test detector? Just curious
Running out of ammo is the lamest way to fail
Main Post: Running out of ammo is the lamest way to fail
Why SVB is just the beginning, Analysis of the fall of SVB from a Financial Analyst
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Ignore the headlines and news anchor, they don't really understand shit. But stuff is just about to kick off and I am going to help explain what is happening and will be happening in the coming weeks and months.
From the start of this fed cycle, I have been wondering who has been eating losses. Basic financial equation 101 teaches you that the present value of an asset is a function of the discount rate applied to its future cf or coupon rate. When the 10/30 year went from 1.5-2.0% in 2019-2021 to 4-5% this year, this meant the market value of those bonds would have fallen by close to 20-25%.
For example TLT, which is the 30 year teasury ETF, has fallen by about 21% in the LTM.
Most people don't understand the bond market in the US is the largest in the world, dwarfing the stock market. It is about twice the size of the stockmarket and is the deepest and most liquid securities market in the world. Within this market, the deepest and most liquid part of the market is made up of US treasuries and mortgage backed agency MBS securities.
With the sudden spike up in rates over the last 12-16 months, the mark to market losses of the bond market is probably somewhere to the tune of 4-6 trillion. And I have always been wondering where that was going to show up and blow something up in the financial market. And the answer is in the banks.
Don't believe what they tell you, Silicon Valley Bank was a very conservative bank. Out of their ~200 billion in assets, very little (<0.5%) was venture debt lending. As you can see in their Q4 Balance Sheet, they had 15 billion in cash/cash like securities, about 120 billion investment securities and 70 billion in loans.
within that 120 billion investment securities, it is almost entirely treasuries and Agency MBS/CMO and CMBS with a touch of muni bonds. You can't build a more conservative book if you tried. As these are all effective government securities as the GSEs are still in conservatorship under the treasury. For years due to Basel III, US banks have been derisking and now most of their balance sheets consists of government or quasi government securites which have almost no default risks.
Now looking at the loan book, you can see the bulk of it is in global fund banking and investor dependent. Global Fund banking is an extremely safe segment, it consists of largely funding or bridging loans to venture capitalist making transactions. So for example if a VC wants to invest in company A, but they want to wait 2 months before drawing down from their LPs, they will go to SVB to get a credit line for this purpose. This is an extremely safe business model as Venture/PE Funding is contracted funding and there has been basically no defaults on these types of loans ever in history. Then you have private bank, which consisted of lending to rich people over collateralized through the value of their houses, which is also a pretty safe business model as their asset coverage typically exceeds 150% of the loan value.
Even the investor dependent segment is typically very safe book, as they will write loans as simply a bridge when a financing round for the company has already closed, but are still waiting a few months for the all the papers to be signed and the funds to be transfered.
So wtf is happening, this is a bank that is holding like 2/3 of its book in government papers and the rest in fairly safe lending. The speculative lending to early tech business represent <0.5% of the book.
The answer is the federal reserve, this guy
He basically fucked over the entire banking sector. Remember that 120 billion in agency backed papers and treasuries in the investment securities section of SVB , well, most of that is HTM (Hold to Maturnity). Its a bank, get over it, a duration mismatch is expected. But the amplitute of the loss is proportional to the raise in rates due simply how bonds work. In the SVB book, the average maturity is around 6 years. Some simple math point to about a 10% loss in this investment book that hasn't been marked to market, representing about 12 billion in losses. This wiped out all the equity of the bank and some of the value of the bonds.
Overall the Agency papers and treasuries can be sold over the course of the next couple of weeks and depositers will get about 60 cents on the dollar and the remainder will be sold over the next 12-48 months and I expect most depositers to get back close to 90 cents + on the dollar.
Well that's great, you might say. NO, IT IS NOT GREAT. BECAUSE SVB was not a bad bank, it was actually a pretty conservative bank. It also wouldn't be insolvent if it wasn't for the fed. What it did suffer from was a unique deposit base that was largely not FDIC insured. Since it was largely catering to start-up companies, most accounts went above the FDIC limit of 250k, as a result, this was simply a bank run similar to during the great depression. It doesn't matter how safe the bank was, if there is a run, you won't survive it. And the uniqueness of start-ups which are most often cash burning and therefore extremely senstivie to the lack of cash just meant they were more flighty depositers. Marry that to the game theory dynamics of the low cost of getting your money out first so you can meet payroll mean't that once it starts, you can't stop it.
Ok, you ask, what the hell does it all mean for the future. Well, here is the thing. If SVB is underwater, are all the banks are underwater?
Here are the assets of JPM, again, for the major banks, JPM has a 3.5 trillion balance sheet, and BOA has a 3 trillion balance sheet. JPM only lists out 641 billion of that 3.5 trillion as trading securities and thus and they reported a loss of ~50 billion or ~8%.
This is a similar picture with BOA, which lists out trading securites of 300 billion, but there is another 2.7 billion in other assets, of which 1 trillion are longer dated treasuries and agency securities. If we mark to market those losses, there is another 80-100 billion in losses which are not being marked to market.
Again, going back to the original thought, someone lost 4-6 trillion through the bond market from fed raising rates. Close to 2 trillion is lost through agency securities with the reminder from treasuries. Unironically, close to 15% of this is lost from the fed itself, due to its own balance sheet of treasuries and agency papers. It looks like around 30% of those agency security losses or about ~600 billion is through the commerical banks. I suspect probably another 300-400 billion though treasuries. So the banking sector has lost about 1 trillion in the past year, of which only maybe 100-200 billion has actually been marked-to-market down as losses.
Remember, the size of the losses in Subprime was only about ~100 billion. Now, every 50 bps increase by the fed results in close to that much in losses to the banking sector. So yes, Mr. Powell wil likely blow up the entire banking system.
Edit 1: Alot of people are pointing out that the deposit base of other banks are signficantly different. Yes 100% agree, but the run on liquidity of a bank can come in two ways. One is on the deposit side (see great depression and SVB), the other way is through the interbank funding market (alas 2008). I will write a part II in the coming days of the drying up of that source of liqudity.
Edit 2: Also a lot of people keep pointing to hedging and managing duration risk. This is BS as all the banks have this unrealized loss on their balance sheet, go look.Imagine God telling everyone he is going to destroy your house, now go and try to find insurance on your house for less than the cost of building a new house. And to the smart asses mentioning swaps. Go ahead and try to swap your house for a new house for anything less 0. Now think termites slowly destroying your house over the course of a year instead an earthquake, good luck being the person trying to hedge that. But the most relevant point is that a security that is classified under the HTM category, it cannot have any hedges. So to all the people who think this was a risk management issue, go look at all the other banks, they have not hedged their HTM securties either. To compound this, the fed in 2021 signaled very strongly to market that rates were going to held at zero until 2024, and then pivoted in 12 months, throwing everyone in for a loop. There was no realistic way for any management or risk management team to have handled this. So yes, the blame lies largely with the fed here.
Edit 3: on all the people saying the larger banks are so much smarter and know what they are doing. SVB had the most liquid portfolio of any bank out there. They had about 8% of their desposits in cash and about ~45% in GSE/treasuries which is the most liquid instrument out there and can be sold down in a weeks notice. None of the other/largest banks are even close to that. The larger banks have a much lower deposit base like ~25%-30% of their capital base and maybe 10-20% in equity and 50-60% are based in interbank financing (hello 2008). The finiky parts of the larger bank's capital structure aren't deposits, most of these are FDIC insured (but still probably only half or so as the business accounts certaintly aren't), it is the intrabank financing part. You know, the stuff that blew up lehman and bear sterns.
Also people don't seem grasp what a bank is and think they should be 100% in cash or something. You do understand banks make money from spreads. Signaling to investors you are taking depositer cash, and investing them in 3-month t-bills yielding 0.25% is a great way to tell them you don't actually have a business model and is a money losing startup like Wework or some shit.
Top Comment: On one hand this sounds like some really intelligent analysis. On the other hand this is WSB and I’ve seen like 100 smart posts like this in the last 3 years not come to fruition at all.
What is the deal with Silicon Valley Bank?
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I looked it up after three different fwbs groaned about it today. Did the problems just start today? What’s going on at SVB??
Update: From Reuters - regulators closed the bank
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